Some executives pride themselves on having a strong intuition, honed through years of experience, that guides their decisions. Others are ambivalent about relying on their intuition to make important choices, concerned that their gut reaction is inherently biased or emotional. This latter group is no doubt responding to the oft-given advice that we should use formal data and analysis to “check” our intuitions. So who’s right? Should leaders make decisions based on their gut feel, or shouldn’t they?
When It’s OK to Trust Your Gut on a Big Decision
More data isn’t always helpful.
October 22, 2019
Cultura RF/Brett Phibbs/Getty Images
Summary.
Should you use your gut feel or not? Recent research suggests that it can be useful, especially in highly uncertain circumstances where further data gathering and analysis won’t sway you one way or another. Where there is debilitating evidence that delays decision making, trusting your gut allows leaders the freedom to move forward. But before relying on it, do two things. Recognize the type of problem at hand. Ask, What is the level of “unknowability”? Reserve your intuition for those decisions that go beyond routine, where calculations of probabilities and risks are not only unrealistic, they are infeasible. Second, be aware of the context in which you are making the decision. If you’re operating in an environment where successful mental models and schemas have already been developed and proven, focus on method and execution. If you’re seeking to make an unusual, distinctive, “diamond in the rough” type of decision (think about trying to predict the next startup unicorn), gut instinct can be helpful. And once you’ve decided to rely on your intuition, don’t try to explain it or justify to others how you arrived at it. If you apply logic and data to gut feel, the more likely you are to put off a decision or make a worse one.